Wednesday, July 18, 2018

IDFC EQUITY OPPORTUNITY FUND SERIES 6


Should you invest in IDFC Equity Opportunity Series 6?

Consider this:-

  • India was the 10th. Largest economy (in terms of US dollar) in 2014. By 2018, India was the 6th largest economy (in terms of US dollars) 

  • The Indian economy which was in a slow motion between 2004 to 2014, seems to be turning around in 2018.
  • With the imprints of DeMo fading and with GST gradually gaining traction, consumption is back with vigor, leading to recovery in gross utilization numbers across sectors.
  • We are seeing some green shoots --- manufacturing activity has hit its highest level in 5 years and commercial vehicle sales, which is a proxy for growth, surged by 60 to 80 percent in December. 
  • Indian growth story is predominantly dependent upon domestic demand, unlike export based economies like China, or commodity driven economies like Brazil, Russia etc.
  • GST collection in April’2018 crossed Rs. 1 lakh crore.


So, what’s driving the Indian economy?

Demand in the economy is driven by 3As—Awareness, Affordability, Availability.

In absence of any of one A— demand will be missing or low

Growing middle class, rising literacy rates, distribution push and brand pull is transforming India from A to 3A.

A classic case of missing of either one of the A is Bajaj Scooters & Ambassador Cars—there was Awareness and Affordability but no immediate Availability. Hero Honda (erstwhile) became world’s largest bike manufacturers.

It took India 70 years to reach $2.50 trillion economy.  It will reach $5 trillion economy in next 5-7 years—and this is not possible if economy is not growing.
  
So, where is the growth going to come from? Growth will come from factors like
  • Growing consumption data base. 
  • Strong technology adoption (for example:- Direct Benefit Transfer).
  • Improve supply chain management(facilitated by increasing road connectivity)

IDFC Mutual Fund has come out with a NFO to benefit from a burgeoning economy.

The fund will focus on companies

  • With high promoter holding..
  • Capable & focused management driving the business
  • Which are consistently generating above average RoE
  • With low financial leverage.



To end we would just say...

“jo lega, so paayega”

Opportunity knocks more than once at AIMS.











Sunday, October 9, 2016

NPS GOOD, BUT EQUITY MFs BETTER IN THE LONG RUN FOR RETIREMENT


Though National Pension System (NPS) offers good tax differing options, it is not suited to investors whose debt portion is already met through contribution to PF, PPF etc. and want to route the additional investment to equities. This is because as per existing regulations, NPS does not allow equity exposure beyond 50%. Though a new life cycle fund introduced recently, allows up to 75% equity exposure, it is only up to the age of 35 and after that equity exposure comes down by 2% every year. That means the equity exposure will be down to 55%, by the time one turns 45 and will drop further to 35% by the age of 55.

Does it mean that you can forgo the tax deferment option in such situations? Since historically equity has generated better returns in long term, it makes sense to pay tax now and then invest the remaining money in equity MFs.

We have tested this by assuming 12% return for equities 8% for debt and 10% for NPS (i.e. on the assumption that asset allocation here is 50% equity and 50% debt).In the first option tax payer routes Rs. 50,000 p.a. to NPS, the exclusive window allowed under section 80CCD(1B). In other options, he decides to pay tax and invest the remaining money into an equity MF. These annual investments will vary depending on the tax slabs. So the second, third, and fourth options are based on 30.9% tax slab (remaining investment Rs. 34,550) 20.6% tax slab (remaining investment 39,700 and 10.3% tax slab (remaining investment 44,850)

Total value of Rs. 34,550 p.a. investments into equity fund has overtaken the value of Rs. 50,000 p.a on investments into NPS in the year of 29.Similarly, break even year will be earlier for people in lower tax slabs—that is 19th year for people in 20.6%tax slab and 10th year for people in 10.3% tax slab. Please note that the above mentioned analysis is without considering the tax implication of NPS at maturity. If that is also considered, this break even will be much earlier.

Reasons why NPS may not be suitable for a new employee and neither for an existing one may be listed as under:-

  • Very long lock in period:-

NPS has the longest lock-in period amongst the tax saving instruments. One can only withdraw at the age of 60. Even then, one can withdraw only 60% of the accumulated balance, while the rest (40%) has to be compulsorily utilized to buy an annuity. Hence, if one opts to create retirement corpus through NPS his lock in period can be as long as 30-35 years, if he starts investing from the age of 25-30.
  • Taxation on maturity

NPS is a tax deferment product and not a tax saving one. Out of the 60% that is allowed to be withdrawn, 40% is tax free while the rest 20% will be taxed as income. Furthermore, the pension received is taxed under the current Income Tax provisions. The Indian annuity market is still not conducive for annuity seekers. The current annuity yield is between 5-7%--much less than fixed deposit. So, even if the savings earn a higher return during the accumulation phase, low pension rate will undo most of the gains.

In light of the above it is possible to create a retirement corpus through the MF route in a tax friendly manner, by commencing a monthly SIP solely for retirement purpose.

Calculations show that a monthly SIP of Rs. 5000 religiously continued for 30 years will yield a corpus of roughly Rs. 1.20 crores. This will in all likely hood yield a monthly cash flow of Rs. 80,000 at a conservative rate of return of 8% (called SWP or systematic Withdrawal Plan).

With some planning (preferably done by your financial advisor) you can live your twilight years with “sar utha ke jiyo”.

Happy retirement to you


Click on the link to read-- Why PPF may not be suitable for your retirement








Tuesday, August 30, 2016

PPF may not be appropriate to fund YOUR retirement


PPF (or any fixed income product) fails as a retirement funding option--SEQUEL

“Kitna Milega”?

This is the first question that an investor asks at the time of making an investment.  His “friendly neighborhood” advisor says “pataa nahin”.

It is highly likely that the investor declines to make the promised investment and instead goes for PPF      (likely advised by his CA)—which offers 8.1 %( w.e.f. 01/04/2016).

Is PPF that good?? Does it score over Equity Mutual funds?

Let’s see.

We decided to do a reality check as to see whether PPF does indeed scores over ELSS.
We requested one of our clients who had been investing (read saving) in PPF for last 15 odd years to provide us with a copy of his PPF passbook. We decided to run the check against HDFC Tax Saver (one of the few funds which has a twenty year record (date of inception—31/03/1996).

The table that emerged is as under:-

Date
Amount
Interest
Withdrawal
Balance
NAV
Units
Balance
Value
04/03/1998
30000


30000
11.47
2616
2616
30000
04/03/1999
20000



18.77
1066
3681
69093
05/03/1999
20000



18.77
1066
4747
89093
31/03/1999

4336






06/03/2000
60000



46.60
1288
6034
281191
31/03/2000

9312

143648




23/03/2001
60000



15.86
3783
9817
155701
31/03/2001

15622

219270




09/01/2002
60000


279270
17.41
3446
13264
230918
31/03/2002

21664






04/03/2003
60000


360934
19.49
3079
16342
318506
31/03/2003

27233

388168




02/03/2004
70000



41.43
1690
18032
747050
31/03/2004

31520

489688




04/03/2005
70000



70.68
990
19022
1344476
31/03/2005

39642

599329




10/02/2006
70000



117.18
598
19619
2296999
31/03/2006

48413

717742




01/03/2007


140000
577742
135.89
(1030)
18.589
2526077
20/03/2007
70000



129.22
542
19131
2472068
31/03/2007
56486


704228
133.88
422
19553
2617724
07/03/2008
40000



157.13
255
19807
3112325
31/03/2008

56338

800566




27/02/2009
70000



89.449
783
20590
1841746
31/03/2009

64512

935078




13/02/2010
70000



190.63
367
20967
3996052
31/03/2010

75273

1080351




11/08/2010
70000



227.54
308
21265
4838578
31/03/2011

89696

1240046




02/04/2011
70000



232.77
301
21565
5019792
31/03/2012

107424

1417470




12/04/2012
100000



220.89
453
22018
4803593
31/03/2013

132804

1650272




02/07/2013
100000



222.65
449
22467
5002346
31/03/2014

150099

1900373




09/04/2014
100000


2000373
283.74
352
22820
6474874









Summary
Total invested

Withdrawn
PPF Balance
Current  NAV


Current Value
26/08/2016
1266486

140000
2000373
408.189


9314873


Inference from the above table:-
  • The same Rs. 12.66 lacs invested in ELSS grew 8 times (Rs.93.15 lacs) more than what the PPF corpus grew over the same 16 year period.
  • In his quest of not losing money, the investor parked his savings in PPF, thereby losing whopping Rs. 80 lacs of the incremental gains  that could have been his had he invested in ELSS fund.
  • At no point in the last 10 years, when the market has witnessed big fluctuations, has the ELSS corpus been less than the PF corpus.
  • Even in March 2009, when the Sensex was at its lowest at roughly 9000 levels, the ELSS corpus was more than twice the value of the PPF corpus.
  • Even now, if the market were again to drop 50% like it did in 2008-2009(which no one believes it will), the ELSS corpus would still be higher than the PPF corpus, even after a 50% drop.
  • Apart from the returns aspect, there is the liquidity aspect. ELSS has a lock in of 3 years while PPF has a lock in of 15 years (although one can take a loan against the PPF balance—subject to term & conditions).
  • Tax benefit is same for the ELSS funds & PPF.
  • The only advantage that PPF has is that it cannot be attached by Income Tax authorities.

 Read Part 1 of the article here:-  PPF Fails as a Retirement funding product Part 1