Saturday, December 28, 2013

Compelling case for investment in bond funds

10 Year Benchmark has been trending higher after the credit policy announcement of 29th October 2013.

Key factors that drove the benchmark yield to 9% levels:
  • Indian rupee has been under performing against the US dollar in the first half of November’13.
  • Rs. 75,000 crores of bond supply in November
  • Continued FII selling of Indian debt securities.
  • Switching to new 10 year benchmark. Market participant have been switching out of current 10YR benchmark (7.16% 2023) and into new 8.83% 2023. This has resulted in narrowing spreads between them from around 30 bps to near parity presently.

We believe the above factors caused the benchmark yield to rise to 9%.

What’s next?

The chart given here below of benchmark 10Yr G-Sec (from Nov 2003 to November 2013) makes a compelling case for investing in bond funds when the yields are hovering above 9%.(9.05% as on 12/11/2013)




Consider the following data points:-

Period of observations

From 29/11/2003 to 19/11/2013
Total No. of observations

2512
No. of days when 10Yr yield closed above 9%

37
Average YTM in last 10 years

7.48%
Mean YTM in last 10 years

7.74%
(Source: - DSP Blackrock Mutual Fund)

It is worth noting that the benchmark closed above 9% only 1.47% of the time i.e. on 37 days out of total 2512 trading days during the last 10 years.

Another perspective of the rare opportunity:-

Last 10 yr. G Sec yield Range

% of occurrence

5-6%

9.47%

6-7%

12.35%

7-8%

44.85%

8-9%

32.16%

9-10%

1.40%
A rare opportunity
          (Source: - IDFC Mutual Fund)

So when  would you invest in bond fund—at a level when there is maximum occurrence of attractive yields with less scope for making returns. Or when the occurrence is just 1.40% of the time in last 10 years—thus presenting good scope for discerning investors to make good returns.

An over view of the 1 year return generated by bond funds (from say IDFC MF stable when the yield touched/crossed 9%

From
15/07/2008
01/08/2008
14/11/2011
To
14/07/2009
31/07/2009
13/11/2012
10 Yr. G Sec yield on from date
9.47%
9.26%
8.97%
Returns generated by



IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund
19.12%
18.33%
11.99%
IDFC SSIF—IP
13.48%
13.16%
10.71%
(www.valueresearchonline.com)


The current yield of 9% is like an index level of 15000 on Sensex. What should be the correct strategy at such levels---redeem or invest more?

Conclusion:-

Risk reward ratio is in favour of investors who invest in bond funds at present yield levels. A limited period discount offer is presently open.

Recommendation:-

We strongly recommend investments in bond funds at the current 9% YTM of benchmark 10Yr. G Sec. Following are our recommendations:-

·         IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund
·         IDFC SSIF—MT


Opportunity favours the prepared mind. We are prepared. Are you? 




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